Bakhmut is also where the Kremlin-aligned mercenary organization the Wagner Group has been leading the push, suffering heavy losses along the way, many of which are from the convicts recruited into the group. And though Russia still lacks equivalent to many US systems, in turn, it has land-based artillery, air-defense, and tactical ballistic-missile capabilities the US doesn't yet field because of Washington's greater reliance on air power, and it's moving forward with integrating a variety of armed drones into service in the 2020s. This is deliberate; its part of the top-down command system dating back to Soviet times, if not earlier. The idea of an arms treaty between the two nations may be outdated. In response, nearly one million military-aged Russian men fled the country. [73]The Ukrainian General Prosecutors Office reported on February 28 that Russian officials have forcibly removed 16,000 Ukrainian children from Ukraine to Russia and Belarus and that Ukrainian officials have managed to return 307 of those children to Ukrainian-held territory. His book, "The New Rules Of War," explores how to win wars in this new era, and he's with us now. By A Russian bomber crew successfully landed their stricken aircraft in a field after the one of the airplanes engines failed. Recent wars in Ukraine and Syria show how Russian ground forces practice "non-contact warfare," in which long-range precision fires rather than mechanized assault take the lead. Kherson Oblast occupation administration head Vladimir Saldo called on teachers from Russia to teach in Kherson Oblast, specifically Russian history, and stated that his administration intends to shape the educational curriculum with lessons on patriotism and military affairs under the guidance of the Russian Military Historical Society. [42]Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko reported that Russian forces have transferred between 20,000 and 25,000 personnel from Mariupol Raion, Donetsk Oblast, to unspecified areas of the front, although Russian forces likely transferred most of these personnel to areas of active offensive operations elsewhere in Donetsk Oblast. Russia has paid special attention to the development of unmanned and autonomous military systems, which it has tested in combat in eastern Ukraine, Syria, and the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. [1]https://t.me/mod_russia/24466;https://t.me/mod_russia/24467;https:// [2]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://t.me/mod_russia/24273, [3]https://isw.pub/UkrWar022323; https://isw.pub/UkrWar02242023. Pretty outdated. Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. It is 82% in Strategic Nuclear Forces, but only 48,3% in th Many of the more than 150,000 largely conscripted troops that Moscow has deployed across Ukraine have been bogged down north of Kyiv, the capital. Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. But its also due to the fact that the Russian army just isnt very good. Despite having a huge advantage in armor when the war broke out, severe losses have weakened Russias forces. Groups are working to de-mine those areas to make them safe for civilians. At some point, superior firepower will win out, at least in the short run. Got an acquitance whos already been serving for like 12 years and holds a senior NCO rank. Russias military, at 900,000 active duty troops and two million reservists, is eight times the size of Ukraines. They're not all Russian citizens, but they are all, like, in the former Soviet, you know, sphere. [31]Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the situation in Bakhmut is becoming increasingly complicated, and Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky remarked that Wagner is increasingly committing its most prepared assault units to offensives in the area. NOW WATCH: Russia just introduced a new missile nicknamed 'Satan 2' here's a look at their other formidable weapon systems, fragging" unpopular officers with grenades, humiliating destruction of Russian armored columns, doctrinal and technical innovations in the Soviet military. according to the Kremlin's official site. [18]The Kremlin may be reintroducing the negotiations information operation to reduce the effectiveness of future Ukrainian counteroffensives by delaying the provision of essential Western aid and to seek to gain concessions before potential further setbacks in Ukraine. And that is what Russia did in 2014 to sort of take Crimea. In 2022, Moscow allocated $61.7 billion for the military, the fourth biggest military budget in the world, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). MARTIN: There are reports now that mercenary groups may be getting involved in support of Russia. In the years immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian military Militaries change in response to experience and material circumstances, and Russia's is no different. And right now, they're going through the streets of Kyiv in plainclothes. It is 82% in Strategic Nuclear Forces, but only 48,3% in the Ground Forces. The force employment is completely irrational, preparations for a real war near nonexistent and morale incredibly low because troops were clearly not told they would be sent into this fight.. Image: AP. Soviet strategy amounted to a full-court press on NATO's outnumbered defenses in sectors like the Fulda Gap, with second and third wave divisions awaiting in echelon to pour into areas where a breakthrough seemed promising. Claim: According to a February 2023 video message, U.S. President Joe Biden had invoked the Selective Service Act, which will draft 20-year-olds through lottery to the military as a result of a And remember, the Pentagon is also attempting to devote most of its military efforts to counter China in the Pacific. Sbastien Roblin writes on the technical, historical, and political aspects of international security and conflict for publications including 19FortyFive, The National Interest, NBC News, Forbes.com and War is Boring. While the Russian armys troubles are real, the publics view of the fight is skewed by the realities of the information battlefield. It is just one of many aging T-62s deployed by the Russians in Ukraine, many of which have either been The rusty BTR-50P, which dates back to 1954, probably wont fare too well in combat. Its seen as the first part of an expected spring offensive, and so far is not going well. Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and continue offensive operations into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast), Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Svatove on February 28. A Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the region of Luhansk on Saturday. And it's puzzling because Putin is a - he's been a leader in modern warfare not in terms of it being morally good, but in, as you said earlier, hybrid war. Another old pattern repeating itself in Ukraine is the Russian armys reliance on heavy guns. The town itself has been shattered by the fighting, with buildings bombed out and streets abandoned. NATO? Are they third-country nationals? Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. General Herems colleague and the air force chief, Brig. The way the Russians have advanced, which is that they have stuck to main roads so that they can move quickly, not risk of getting bogged down in mud. In addition to tens of thousands of civilian deaths, the Russian military, interior ministry, and police forces suffered 7,000 deaths, hardly supporting the notion Russia is unable to tolerate casualties. I mean, are they Russian nationals? In this operation, the Russian military never achieved the necessary momentum. Will This Make Biden Acknowledge the Supreme Court Is Out of Control. This is reflected in the Ground Force's preferred ad-hoc fighting formation, the Battalion Tactical Group, which combines infantry and tank companies with an unusually large quantity of artillery. Articles may contain affiliate links which enable us to share in the revenue of any purchases made. [2]The apparent uptick in fallacious biochemical and nuclear false flag warnings accompanies a concerted Russian false flag information operation accusing Ukraine of preparing for an invasion of Russian-occupied Transnistria, Moldova. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information. [33]A Russian milblogger remarked that Russian troops are attacking towards Bohdanivka in order to threaten the Khromove-Bakhmut route. | Russia has closed down the airspace over the Pulkovo Airport in St Petersburg after an unidentified flying object was spotted, according to reports. [16]Lukashenko also blamed the West and the US for coercing Ukrainian officials into rejecting negotiations with Russia. [48], Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian force concentrations and logistics in southern Ukraine. MARTIN: Who are these people? Russian forces attacked residential neighborhoods of Mykolaiv, Ukraine, with artillery on Monday. They need to be escorted by infantry troops alongside or by combat planes from above, to avoid getting ambushed. pic.twitter.com/ZpJRkRStLw, Vuhledar, and Russians tried it again. What are you thinking of? [26]Geolocated footage published on February 27 showed two Russian tanks firing at Ukrainian positions west of Chervonopopivka (5km north of Kreminna) indicating limited Russian advances. 2 Dec 2022 Brussels, Belgium Ten months into Russias war in Ukraine, the war of words between the Kremlin and the West continues. In response, nearly one million military-aged Russian men fled the country. https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1630616430210170880?s=20;ht https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8071;https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8069. Regarding claims Russia lacks manpower due to a shrinking population, in fact only 5% of each yearly male cohort is conscripted, and the pool of available manpower is expected to increase for at least a decade. They have been updated through the decades. They don't address terrorism, insurgent groups or groups like mercenaries. There is a larger factor here: The Russian army is composed, by and large, of one-year conscripts, who are poorly trained (even within the confines of Russian military training), badly treated, and uninspired by ideology or any other motivating spirit. [79]Neither Belarusian nor Russian authorities have commented on the reported attack as of this publication. Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. Accuracy and availability may vary. As a result, two Il-76 transport planes, each carrying 100 airborne troops, were shot down. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia's weapons should be modernized, in a rare hint that the Kremlin is acknowledging its military hardware is outdated. And the reason why Russia likes mercenaries, particularly this one group called the Wagner Group, is because they give the Kremlin great plausible deniability. [5]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass [6]https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-does-not-see-significant-near-term-r https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmwk4/pentagon-putin-nukes-ukraine. [3]Russian President Vladimir Putin also notably re-introduced nuclear rhetoric into the Russian information space during his address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 21 when he announced Russias intent to suspend participation in START. Please try again. But in the end, military officials say they still expect that mass will matter. [64]https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1630478324215455745;https://t.me [65]https://t.me/grey_zone/17471;https://t.me/concordgroup_official/528; [66]https://www.fontanka dot ru/2023/02/27/72090578/; https://t.me/astrapress/21942. Residents of Mykolaiv worked to repair a captured Russian tank on Sunday. Russia launched a new offensive to take Vuhledar, but its armor is taking heavy losses. [43]Russian forces have conducted infrequent localized attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast in recent months but have not conducted any meaningful offensive activity in Kherson Oblast since withdrawing from the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River in November 2022. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense reported that Russias Aerospace Forces would likely have only six operational A-50s in service if this attack were successful. The brutal tactics may eventually overwhelm Ukraines defenses, but they will almost certainly fuel a bloody insurgency that could bog down Russia for years, military analysts say. Every day, Pentagon officials caution that Russias military will soon correct its mistakes, perhaps shutting off communications across the country, cutting off Mr. Zelensky from his commanders. It's certainly horrifying. As a result, Ukrainian drones have been picking off Russian convoys with impunity. [20]Ukrainian intelligence officials stated that Belarus supplied Russia with artillery ammunition from Belarusian warehouses to support operations in Ukraine. That's what they're MARTIN: That's what their modus operandi - that is how they operate. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are defending in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts but are trying to create conditions that will allow Russian forces to conduct offensives in some unspecified areas of this part of the front. : r/CredibleDefense 9 yr. ago Posted by bleepblopbloopy Russias Overestimated Military Might. It'll be horrific. [53]This arrest demonstrates Russian authorities willingness and ability to target Russian citizens abroad in Russia-friendly countries for acts of protest committed previously within Russia. A top US defense official supported ISWs continued assessment that Russia is extraordinarily unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. [39], Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on February 28. Ukrainian soldiers explicitly attacked the Russian supply lines, two Il-76 transport planes, each carrying 100 airborne troops, were shot down, Russian tanks are rolling all on their own, Ukrainian drones have been picking off Russian convoys, The Supreme Courts Conservatives Tried Very Hard Today to Find a Good Reason to Screw Biden, Theres a Clear Answer to the Texas Judge Who Thinks He Can Ban Abortion Pills Nationwide. MARTIN: And by hybrid warfare, what do we mean? [30]The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; north of Bakhmut near Dubovo-Vasylivka (6km northwest), Orikhovo-Vasylivka (10km northwest), Berkhkivka (4km north), Yahidne (1km northwest), Vasyukivka (13km northwest), and Bohdanivka (8km northwest); west of Bakhmut near Chasiv Yar (10km west); and southwest of Bakhmut near Bila Hora (15km southwest). Click here. For over a decade, Russia has undergone a great modernization of its military. Thank you for joining us. [78]The images do not show any obvious damage to the aircraft fuselage but do seemingly show color differences on the aircrafts wings and radar dome, potentially indicating repainting. But European countries say they are not as intimidated by Russian ground forces as they were in the past. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. The resistance will continue, especially now that practically every nation in NATO is supplying Ukraine with weapons. An unknown flying object was sighted this morning near one of the military installations, approximately 180 kilometre (112 miles) away from St. Petersburg, hometown of Vladimir Putin.It further adds that, as Sign up for notifications from Insider! With that in mind, let's look at some chestnuts about Russia's military in need of retirement. Should this continue, this may further accelerate an end to the war. He holds a master's degree from Georgetown University and served with the Peace Corps in China. Neighborhoods of Mykolaiv worked to repair a captured Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian continue! Acquitance whos already been serving for like 12 years and holds a senior NCO rank Ukraine with weapons that what... One million military-aged Russian men fled the country the airplanes engines failed feed... 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